The United Nations Security Council is in the process of choosing the next Secretary-General, and the winner might be the first woman ever to hold the post. But first, the eight hopefuls must line up nine votes from the Security Council’s 15 members, and avoid a veto from any of its five permanent members, including Russia, China, and the United States. Anchal Vohra reports.
For a world mired in conflict and desperate for an unbiased interlocutor, the election of the next United Nations secretary-general couldn’t have come at a better time. The UN’s top boss is expected to be the peacemaker-in-chief, at least in theory, and perhaps more importantly, the guardian of a collective moral compass, regardless of national affiliations. Are any of the eight candidates up to the task?
As the race heats up, a former UN diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity, quipped that the key question is whether the P5 – the permanent five Security Council members, which each hold a veto – want a secretary or a general.
A general might take a hands-on approach to the various conflicts engulfing the world and try to revive an institution that is struggling to remain relevant, as regional actors offer mediation services while the UN itself is bogged down by its own bureaucracy and undermined by the United States, its biggest sponsor.
But the powerful countries that have the most say in the ultimate decision seem to prefer a secretary – someone who can manage the clashing interests of global powers without grabbing attention.
The sitting UN chief, António Guterres, has had a tough ride under U.S. President Donald Trump, who has made no secret of his contempt for everything that the United Nations stands for: respect for due process, human rights, international law, and equal status for all in the family of nations. Guterres’s successor can expect to navigate a minefield, as the United States openly links its funding to further its national interests as Trump sees fit.
However, Trump’s lack of faith and transactional approach won’t be the only problem.
China is the second-biggest contributor, rising from providing 1% of its costs in 2000 to 20% this year – comparable to the United States’ 22%. China is also assessed to contribute more than 23% of the budget that goes toward the organization’s peacekeeping forces, a little under the United States’ 26%.
Insiders say that Beijing is clamoring for a bigger say. Meanwhile, Russia intends to continue exploiting its position on the UN Security Council to gain leverage in other theaters. The United Kingdom and France also hold a veto, but their geopolitical weight is less of a factor and isn’t expected to sway the election.
The selection process has begun, with two rounds of straw or informal votes having already been held by the 15 members of the Security Council – a process undertaken to determine whether any of the five permanent members appears likely to block a candidate.
Based on those straw-poll votes, and also the geographic turn-taking that the United Nations often adheres to, most believe the next leader will be from Latin America. Specifically, the race is largely believed to be between four Latin Americans, three of whom are women.
Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan
Former Costa Rican vice president Rebeca Grynspan is among the top candidates. She was the front-runner in the first straw poll conducted by the Security Council, which includes 10 temporary members in addition to the five permanent ones. The poll votes is split into three categories: encourage, discourage, and no opinion, with nine “encourage” votes – as well as no vetoes from the permanent members – needed to win. Ten nations “encouraged” Grynspan’s nomination in the first round, while only one expressed apprehension.
If she is the final choice, she would be the first woman and the first Jew to hold the top UN position at a time when Israel’s relationship with the organization has hit rock bottom.
Trump shares Israel’s mistrust of some of the UN’s bodies that are active in the Middle East, such as the UN Relief and Works Agency, which is mandated to look after Palestinian refugees displaced from their homes as a result of the 1948 Arab- Israeli War, and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), its peacekeepers in Lebanon. The United States’ refusal to renew UNIFIL’s mandate has killed the organization; its mandate expires at the end of the year.
There is no established link between Grynspan and the Israeli establishment, and no insinuation she would take a sympathetic view of Israeli policy. Instead, she has been critical both of Hamas and the “continued bombardment of the IDF hitting civilians, hospitals, shelters, schools, and UN facilities in Gaza.”
Israel’s view of Grynspan remains unclear, but she might have earned American ire when she warned against the negative impacts of U.S. tariffs on developing countries while serving as the head of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
Grynspan worked closely with China on development projects as UNCTAD chief. She is among four of the eight candidates who visited Beijing in recent months to discuss her plans for the UN, and, according to the Chinese mission to the organization, expressed her commitment to “the one-China principle” – a veiled reference to support for China’s position on Taiwan.
Russia may decide based on its experience working with her on the Black Sea grain deal, which temporarily allowed for continued export of grain following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. In the second round of polling, however, Grynspan fell down a few notches in the estimation of the Security Council – to seven “encourage” votes while four discouraged her candidacy.
Rafael Grossi of Argentina
Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the Inter- national Atomic Energy Agency, is a more well-known name. Grossi is perhaps the United States’ most-favored candidate, owing to his experience with the Iran file, according to a former UN diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity. Any resolution to the crisis with Iran and its nuclear program will almost certainly involve UN inspections, and Grossi could offer valuable expertise.
“If there is anything that sets me apart from the other candidates, it is that I am addressing very sensitive and delicate issues with all of them today, right now. What is happening in Iran, in Syria, in Ukraine,” Grossi said, referring to collaboration with the P5. “So, I believe that this working methodology that I have managed to establish with all of them allows me to think that it can be replicated at the United Nations, but with great prudence.”
However, Russia has already expressed its objection. In his current role, Grossi is also keeping an eye on the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine, and has apparently irked Moscow. In August, the Russian government criticized him for canceling a trip to the plant over security concerns, which implied a lapse in Russian security arrangements at the key installation, and blamed Ukraine instead for refusing to assure his security.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova also criticized Grossi’s handling of the Russia-Ukraine war and dismissed his description of the UN “dying slowly” as a bid to earn “extra points” ahead of the elections. China may not back Grossi either, either on behalf of Iran or to appease Russia, Beijing’s “no-limits” partner. Rumor has it that even the UK is ill-disposed toward Grossi owing to its ongoing sovereignty dispute with Argentina over the Falkland Islands, or Las Malvinas.
Grossi has maintained seven votes in favor in both polls, but his “discourage” votes have risen from two to six. And he is not the only one who appears to be backed by the United States while still failing to make the cut.
Others with less support
Ecuadorian diplomat Ivonne A-Baki threw her hat in the ring after the first round of voting, following a meeting with the U.S. president. If that meeting was meant to suggest that she had U.S. blessings, it didn’t work. Her performance in the second and the only poll that she contested was dismal – not a single Security Council member voted in favor. Some experts said that was a sign that ties with Trump alone can’t boost numbers.
“Traditionally, candidates who come in at later stages do not do well in the voting. The Security Council needs some time to get familiar with the candidates,” said the former UN diplomat.
Then there are candidates who are likely opposed by both the United States and China.
Michelle Bachelet, Chile’s first woman president, fell sharply from the first to the second vote – from six votes in favor in July to two in August. Bachelet might get a Russian nod but may find it hard to secure U.S. approval: She is a socialist and a former UN human-rights chief.
The force blocking Bachelet might, however, be China. In 2022, under her charge, the UN human-rights office released a damning report about alleged abuses against the Uyghur community in Xinjiang, alleging torture, sexual abuse, and possible crimes against humanity.
“China will never forget that,” said the former UN diplomat. At the time, China reportedly even tried to bury the report.
That leaves two African candidates and two more Latin Americans.
Uganda’s Olara Otunnu and former Senegalese President Macky Sall, who is also a former chair of the African Union, are in the running, but hold precarious middle positions in the polls. Sall maintained his tally in both votes, but with nearly half the Security Council – seven out of 15 – discouraging him.
“At this stage, discourages are more important. If you have seven discouraging votes, that means the chance[s] of a veto-holding power having an objection are high,” said Syed Akbaruddin, a former Indian UN ambassador.
Two South American women also contenders
Former Guyanese foreign minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and former Ecuadorian foreign minister María Fernanda Espinosa are both top contenders, in addition to Grynspan. The Guyanese candidate led the second poll. Espinosa, despite securing fewer “encourage” votes, was tied with Rodrigues-Birkett for the fewest “discourage” votes.
In the UN’s 80-year history, there has never been a woman in the top job, and only once has a Latin American held the role. A Latin American UN chief might prove to be useful for Trump, especially since Washington’s latest National Security Strategy document emphasizes the Western Hemisphere.
The competition appears to be between the Latin Americans. However, there is no consensus candidate so far, and more could enter the fray even in the final months. According to the pro-Trump New York Post, the U.S. president has backed Gianni Infantino, head of world soccer federation FIFA, while some reporting suggests that the United States was considering Nickolay Mladenov, the head of Trump’s “Board of Peace” for Gaza.
There is some concern that Trump may push a real estate agent or a family member, but fears of the United States walking out of the UN and threatening its survival are exaggerated, Akbaruddin said.
The United States needs the UN to do the “dirty jobs,” said the former UN diplomat. “If you don’t want to send American boots to resolve a problem but want to impose your solution, who do you ask? The UN put together a Haiti gang-suppression force; the UN sends peacekeepers; and the UN approved Trump’s ‘Board for Peace’ for Gaza. The U.S. then pays 25% of the costs, not the total, because the rest is borne by others.”
The United Nations needs the United States, but the United States also needs the legitimacy and heft of the only universal organization – or the “parliament of nations,” as it is often called. The next secretary-general, like all others before, will have to navigate the clashing interests of global powers, particularly the P5 countries. But the UN still has a role in deal-making and peacemaking and doesn’t have to relegate that job to the G-20, G-7, or G-2; instead, it should build cooperative frameworks with regional mediators.
Despite its many flaws, the United Nations is still perceived as the most impartial institution, and that is its biggest asset. A UN secretary-general still has credibility that few global leaders can boast of.
The biggest challenge for the new boss will be to find a way to be both a secretary and a general.